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Modeling the Spread of Malaria in North-Eastern Nigeria: a Case Study of Adamawa State
Adamu Abdul Kareem,
Moses Vandi Tumba,
Dang Bwebum Cleofas
Issue:
Volume 1, Issue 1, April 2013
Pages:
1-7
Abstract: This paper deals with modeling the spread of Malaria in Adamawa State of Nigeria. The simple SIR model and data obtained from the World Health Organization WHO, Adamawa was used to analyze the rate of infection of malaria in the state. It was discovered that > 0. Based on the principle of which states that when < 0, the infection will die out with a certainty, but if > 0, there will be a proper malaria outbreak. It was observed that the force of infection of malaria in the Adamawa state is high. Some necessary recommendations for the eradication of malaria were made.
Abstract: This paper deals with modeling the spread of Malaria in Adamawa State of Nigeria. The simple SIR model and data obtained from the World Health Organization WHO, Adamawa was used to analyze the rate of infection of malaria in the state. It was discovered that > 0. Based on the principle of which states that when < 0, the infection will die out with a certainty, but if > 0, there will be a proper malari...
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A Representation of Context-free Grammars with the Help of Finite Digraphs
Issue:
Volume 1, Issue 1, April 2013
Pages:
8-11
Abstract: For any context-free grammar, we build a transition diagram, that is, a finite directed graph with labeled arcs, which describes the work of the grammar. This approach is new, and it is different from previously known graph models. We define the concept of proper walk in this transition diagram and we prove that a word belongs to a given context-free language if and only if this word can be obtained with the help of a proper walk.
Abstract: For any context-free grammar, we build a transition diagram, that is, a finite directed graph with labeled arcs, which describes the work of the grammar. This approach is new, and it is different from previously known graph models. We define the concept of proper walk in this transition diagram and we prove that a word belongs to a given context-fr...
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Measuring the Forecast Performance of GARCH and Bilinear-GARCH Models in Time Series Data
Akintunde Mutairu Oyewale,
D. K. Shangodoyin,
P. M Kgosi
Issue:
Volume 1, Issue 1, April 2013
Pages:
17-23
Received:
6 May 2013
Published:
30 May 2013
Abstract: In most of the literature in time series modeling, generalized autoregressive conditional heterosceasticity (GARCH) models has been used as a traditional model to forecast both the economic and financial time series data. Though literature has shown that it is not suitable for non-linear time series. For this reason, this model was augmented with bilinear model in order to make it more relevant in forecasting both economic and financial time series data. After the augmentation, the new model called Bilinear-GARCH (BL-GARCH) shows a better performance based on performance measures indices, models variances and out-of–samples forecast performances. In term of these three criteria the new models outperformed the traditional or classical GARCH model. To drive home this point, these two models were illustrated with Botswana inflation rates data. We observed that the new model (BL-GARCH) outperformed the classical GARCH model.
Abstract: In most of the literature in time series modeling, generalized autoregressive conditional heterosceasticity (GARCH) models has been used as a traditional model to forecast both the economic and financial time series data. Though literature has shown that it is not suitable for non-linear time series. For this reason, this model was augmented with b...
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